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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."