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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.